Former Bihar minister and six-time MLA Chandrika Rai - once a confidante of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and whose daughter Aishwarya is married to his son, Tej Pratap Yadav - will contest the Assembly elections from his stronghold of Parsa in Saran district. It indicates that the part is eyeing the future, not this election,” he explained. For reprint rights: Syndications Today, LJP president Chirag Paswan after holding deliberations with party leaders in New Delhi on Sunday over the upcoming Bihar Assembly election. According to the 2011 census, 32.3% percent people in Bihar migrated to other parts of the country for jobs and employment, followed by Odisha at 31.5%. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)’s decision to go solo and contest every seat where the JD-U has a candidate is certain to impact the CM’s prospects, eating into its Dalit vote base. Despite knowing the fact, it is making all effort to ensure the JD-U does not get a good share of seats. This prospect of an uncertainty is said to be another factor prompting Chirag Paswan for hardening his position in Bihar Assembly election. It also appears to have weakened CM Nitish Kumar’s hold over the EBC-Mahadalit votes, a good chunk of which is seemingly backing the Opposition alliance. In February 2005 Bihar Assembly election, the LJP then led by Ram Vilas Paswan, the current Union minister had fielded candidates against the RJD, while offering no contest on seats where the Congress had nominated its candidates. Former Bihar minister and six-time MLA Chandrika Rai, whose daughter Aishwarya has filed for divorce from Tej Pratap Yadav, Lalu Yadav's son, and who was a … 10.2%, almost double the national average of 5.8%. The LJP is said to have taken the position because of the tussle for the Railway Ministry. Reverting to 2005 formula, the LJP hopes to revive its fortune. Then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chose Yadav for the post. LJP president Chirag Paswan recently said he would resist all attempts to finish his party off hinting that he sees a “grand design” in the tussle with Janata Dal-United (JDU) president and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Bihar: How Successful has MGNREGA been, Before and After the Lockdown? He waited for an opportunity to strike back and got it in the 2005 elections. (Photo: PTI), Bihar Assembly election: LJP ready with 2005 plan even as JDU, BJP stick to 2019 formula, Bihar Election 2020: How Chirag Paswan's 'solo' act may change poll math, Chirag Paswan a villain in NDA? The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far maintained that leaders above 75 years of age should retire from active politics. That loss seemed to be a brief blip though, as he returned to retake the seat in the 2015 elections. Because of the fractured mandate, re-elections in October 2005 diminished the overwhelming sway Lalu Prasad had over Bihar politics since the early ’90s,” he said. "It is surprising that both brothers are looking for safe seats despite being Lalu Prasad's sons... and making tall claims of returning to power," he said. All OBC communities, including Muslim sub-castes, were included in the EBC list except the dominant Yadavs and Kurmis. Days later Tej Pratap hit back and said the JDU "won't gain from Chandrika Rai joining their party". “The BJP is trying to repeat what happened in the February 2005 elections, when the LJP had emerged a spoiler by bagging 29 seats. First created from within the Other Backward Class(es) by socialist stalwart Karpoori Thakur, the EBC category was updated in 2007 by Kumar. In 2015, an Independent candidate Dhirendra Pratap Singh alias Rinku Singh won the seat by defeating Irshad Hussain of Congress by a margin of 33,580 votes. This is why it brought in former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) in the scheme of things when Chirag Paswan led a sustained campaign against the Nitish Kumar government. Instead, he has joined the JDU of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose campaign has been peppered with potshots at former chief minister Lalu Yadav and his son Tejashwi Yadav - the chief ministerial face of the opposition alliance. However, reports suggest that the BJP and the JDU have agreed to contest the Bihar Assembly election 2020 on the same formula as the Lok Sabha election of 2019. The divide between the two families widened in April after Tej Pratap threw a tantrum over Mr Rai being given a ticket to contest the Lok Sabha polls from the Saran seat - the seat won by Lalu Yadav in his last election before conviction in a fodder scam case. Covid reinfection confirmed in US man, second bout was more severe, Is 2020 the worst year for civilisation? The VIP is understood to play along happily even with about half the seats as demanded by Chirag Paswan’s LJP. Bihar tops the country with the highest percentage of migrations taking place every year. But there is still a possibility that the LJP may not contest outside the NDA fold. Efforts are on by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to rake up the issue of return of the proverbial Jungle Raj and resurrection of Maoist violence in Bihar if the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and its communist allies come to power in the state. If it happens, the RJD-Congress-Left alliance will surely be able to form the new government. Discrediting Nitish Kumar will help the BJP, which already enjoys support of the ‘upper castes’. However, at the same time, Sajjad said that the pro-poor consolidation may benefit the Mahagathbandhan. He agreed that the BJP was not fighting the election to form the government but to make itself stronger for a solo bid in the future. “It is true that that the Mahagathbandhan has had an upper hand so far and Tejashwi Yadav successfully made unemployment, migration, mass exodus of migrant labourers and de-industrialisation election discourse, which the NDA is finding difficult to counter,” Anil Kumar Roy, a political analyst associated with the Association for Study and Action, told NewsClick. Two years ago the relationship between the Rais and the Yadavs, two of Bihar's most influential political families, seemed only to have been strengthened by the marriage of Mr Rai's daughter Aishwarya to Tej Pratap Yadav. BJP leaders know that their party won’t be able to form the government if the JD-U gets weaker. Covid pandemic offers a chance to construct better buildings for future. Because of the fractured mandate, re-elections in October 2005 diminished the overwhelming sway Lalu Prasad had over Bihar politics since the early ’90s,” he said. In the second phase, polling will be held in 94 assembly seats while the third and final phase has 78 seats. Experts believe that the BJP wants the same as its sole aim appears to be to get rid of the JD-U by increasing its presence in the state. In February 2005, an analysis of election data shows, the share of women who voted stood at 42.51% (1.04 crore in all) — showing that in the next 10 years, there was a jump of nearly 20%. Subscribe to NewsClick's Telegram channel & get Real-Time updates on stories, as they get published on our website. Even when one asks why the BJP should be help responsible for the failures of the Bihar government, people — especially those from the “upper castes” — come to the rescue of the saffron party, arguing that Nitish always “downplayed” the BJP and did not implement Central schemes. In addition, the consolidation of the much talked-about M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation is said to be emerging as a crucial support base for the RJD-Congress-Left alliance. He also pointed out that Mahagathbandhan might get a chunk of Bhumihar votes because of the Congress, since the community thinks that the BJP won’t give them a fair share if the JD-U sinks. He also pointed out the other possible scenario: a hung assembly, no party with a majority. The saffron party has successfully discredited CM Nitish Kumar among the voters for his failures. No party or alliance was able to cross the majority mark and therefore, the LJP got the key to forming any government in the state. Around 31% of those in the 15-29 age group were unemployed in Bihar in 2018-19, as compared to 17% nationally, shows government data. The strategy seems to have worked well against the ruling NDA coalition, which is already facing a strong anti-incumbency. Both Ram Vilas Paswan and Lalu Prasad wanted the portfolio during the UPA, which had come to power in 2004 after toppling the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA. There were rumours that Aishwarya Rai could join her father in the JDU ranks and make her electoral debut in this election - in a dramatic contest against Tej Pratap Yadav for the Hasanpur seat - but that now seems unlikely. “The larger issues about the survival of democracy, such as independence of judiciary and government institutions, are not being raised by the Opposition,” said Roy. The demand for special status for Bihar has been made frequently since Nitish Kumar came to power in 2005, and most recently in February this year . Mr Rai also took a swipe at his former party on the way out, declaring that "the way things are run in the party is beyond me" and that he had "always been an admirer of Nitish Kumar's work". He was edged out in repeat polls held months later; the JDU's Chhotela Rai won by fewer than 5,000 votes.
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